Forging and MPR (in General)


[RX3]Cotillion April 22 2007 3:35 AM EDT

I have been forging for the last couple of months and I've been using a 1,053,135 MPR character. I 'usually', not always, come in the top 5 for forging/24 hours.

I can't help but notice that Sutekh with Hubbell(a 2,536,305 char) and Defender, with Lorenzo (a 1,971,391char), are forging behind me. Shouldn't their char's with MPR's that are 2.5x and almost 2x more than mine be forging around twice as efficiently? I use all but around 300BA per day, but I have no idea how much they use. If you guys, (Sutekh and Defender), were to post your BA usage and the items you're currently forging, that might help clear some things up. I may not be seeing something as different items have different efficiency in forging, but shouldn't we see a large difference even if they are forging an AoAC and I'm forging a BoNE?

I ask this because I wanted to buy a higher forging team to increase my ability to forge. I'm not so sure that I want to after seeing something like this. Can it be because of BA regen differences? Can there be a certain plateau which one can reach where he/she maxes out their forging ability?

TheHatchetman April 22 2007 3:38 AM EDT

4x MPR = 2x efficiancy. but yes, he should be forging more, depending on the comparaison between items.

[RX3]Cotillion April 22 2007 3:41 AM EDT

Well it looks like Sut is forging a Combat Gi and Defender is forging an Adam, but I haven't any idea of how the efficiency is on those, as I haven't forged them before...

And wheres my Item Forge Efficiency sheet you told me you were gonna give me Sut!?

Kong Ming April 22 2007 10:06 AM EDT

Because the character I sold you is "special" ;)

QBOddBird April 22 2007 10:44 AM EDT

"4x MPR = 2x efficiancy. but yes, he should be forging more, depending on the comparaison between items."

Please tell me you have some basis for that and it wasn't pulled from your rectum?

And from my experience, the BoNE has one of the sweetest forge cycles. That still doesn't even begin to explain the difference though - the Adam and Gi aren't too bad.

Kong Ming April 22 2007 10:50 AM EDT

I thought I read somewhere that efficiency of forging is about 40% more for every doubled amount of MPR.

th00p April 22 2007 10:53 AM EDT

OB, I have heard many times that forging efficiency is a square function of MPR, so that if you quadruple MPR you get sqrt of 4 times in forging efficiency, so 2x.

QBsutekh137 April 22 2007 11:07 AM EDT

Yeah, forging seems like quite a disappointment.

The Combat Gi has something around a 0.905 forging factor, according to my spreadsheet. I don't know how good that is or now. I recall items on CB1 exceeding 1.00 (I think), but even normalizing to 1.00, my forging numbers would only go up by about 10%.

Since starting forging three days ago, I would say I garfed up a total of around 15-20 BA by screwing up cycles, so I am doing pretty well there, too.

RedEcks, send me your email address so I can send you the spreadsheet. The yellow areas are what you fill in, and green areas represent the important calculated factors once you get five cycles input into the spreadsheet. The five cycles need to be within a single + or X increase to work right...

QBOddBird April 22 2007 11:10 AM EDT

th00p - the problem is that 'having heard that' and 'thinking you read somewhere that' something is true....doesn't make it so. It makes it simply the theory going around, and one that is obviously wrong if you look at Forging 24/hr.

QBOddBird April 22 2007 11:14 AM EDT

In fact, it is simple to disprove that. If forging efficiency were 2x for 4x MPR, then that would mean (since forging NW increase/BA is around that of fight rewards) that forging efficiency was slowly decreasing for the lower MPR characters and remaining the same for the highest MPR character.

[RX3]Cotillion April 22 2007 11:23 AM EDT

'And from my experience, the BoNE has one of the sweetest forge cycles. That still doesn't even begin to explain the difference though - the Adam and Gi aren't too bad.' - OB

I'm not forging a BoNE, that was just an example. I'm forging the x on an Axbow right now.

QBsutekh137 April 22 2007 11:29 AM EDT

Regardless, the fact that I can't even get over 400K a day (without buying BA) with a 2.5 million MPR character is interesting. I get in around 19-20 hours of BA worth a day -- that's nothing special, but it isn't too bad, either.

[RX3]Cotillion April 22 2007 11:32 AM EDT

I rarely buy my BA. I buy to tie up loose ends.

DrAcO5676 [The Knighthood III] April 22 2007 11:34 AM EDT

If you guys wanna know something interesting, I have both a 7 Regeneration Character and a 6 Regeneration char... and from what I have done forging... I get the near the same raise in cycle no matter which one I use... that is something that needs to be studied further but I'm pretty sure even if you have the top Mpr... it doesn't matter and won't give you more of an increase than using a low end char...

[RX3]Cotillion April 22 2007 11:36 AM EDT

So what you are saying, is that your 7BA Char forges as well as your 6BA char? I thought forging and BA would scale like it does with fighting, the lower your regen the higher your effiency to balance it out.

Underage Drinking April 22 2007 11:38 AM EDT

well i usually get 4 or 5 sets put in a day, i dont buy much ba per day, and yea im working on an AC +80 i get maybe 5% rpm per cycle of 50ba

Underage Drinking April 22 2007 11:43 AM EDT

i can really say i ve notice a difference from a 1mil pr char and a 2 mil pr char while forging my dagger, with the 1mil mpr i was able to get to +100 and i wanted to stop during to the slow progress of the last few points, the 2mil made a difference that i feel i can take it to +200 and would prob end up the same. but daggers dont have a soul so they don t count.

[RX3]Cotillion April 22 2007 11:43 AM EDT

Heh, I was going to rent an Adam just to see my efficiency, but I don't think Ranger would much like that. :P

Lochnivar April 22 2007 12:54 PM EDT

Based on my understanding of forge dynamics:

Each character should have it's own 'forge rating' which is calculated by ~ BA cost X BA regen rate = Forge Rate ~

for example
a character with a regen of 6 and a BA cost of 1000 would have a rating of 6000
a character with a regen of 8 and a BA cost of 8000 would have a rating of 6400 and thus be a 'better forger'

QBsutekh137 April 22 2007 1:30 PM EDT

The lower the BA regen rate, the more "oomph" each BA has, yes -- that should scale like it does with rewards. In addition, more MPR means more NW gained per cycle... So, if someone half my MPR forges a Combat Gi and still gets the same NW per cycle (after adjusting for differing BA accrual rates), then something is amiss.

Who else forging is at 6/10? What is the NW gain per cycle on a given item? I can then try the same item and see what the gain is for me, and we can pro-rate that to MPR and see what's up...

(surely, someone has already done that, yes?)

Lochnivar April 22 2007 1:34 PM EDT

grr... typo
the second example should say BA cost of 800, not 8000

Incidentally this should be fairly easy to test in practice though I'm not sure it is necessary.
I've done experimentation that fairly clearly established the relationship between forging and BA cost so this is merely an extension of that theory.

[RX3]Cotillion April 22 2007 7:41 PM EDT

Is there an easy way to create a large chart with multiple data entries?

DrAcO5676 [The Knighthood III] April 22 2007 11:43 PM EDT

Sut... I forge with a 6 Regen character... and heres what I come up with. I forged a +18 SC for a few cycles and averaged the Gain to be 7,190 NW per cycle and 3.465 on average per cycle. Maybe you can figure something out cause It still seems like I forge the same with this 1.6 mil char as I do with a 1.2

AdminNightStrike April 22 2007 11:58 PM EDT

Draco, how do you forge with a 6 or a 7 regen character? Regeneration is set for the entire player based on the highest character.

DrAcO5676 [The Knighthood III] April 23 2007 12:06 AM EDT

actually it is a little offset... you can switch to a low regen char for a while and get one regen of that chars BA, then get what you should get normally. But I was talking about forging with my old char then switching to my new one... it seemed like there was no difference at all.

[RX3]Cotillion April 23 2007 1:47 PM EDT

Do you mean retiring your higher character and then unretiring?

Zoglog[T] [big bucks] April 23 2007 2:57 PM EDT

Using a few BA (is a reasonable amount to stop abuse) sets the BA regeneration to what that character would normally get
The regen rate is based off the active character, not the highest haracter. The BA cost on the other hand is for the top character.

[RX3]Cotillion April 23 2007 3:01 PM EDT

I understand... Thx Zog. :)

Shadowsparkle [Jago] April 23 2007 3:36 PM EDT

There's an easy way to clarify how much MPR is valued when forging.
Get some forgers with different MPR together, all have to be in an eco clan and have to forge the same item.
Do 5 cycles, writing down the results. Post them with your MPR and BA rate.

[RX3]Cotillion April 23 2007 3:54 PM EDT

Sutekh has a really nice detailed chart/spreadsheet that we can use. We'd also need the exact same items... same + and everything. I guess I could buy 300BA so I wouldn't be taking time from the job I'm on now...

QBsutekh137 April 23 2007 4:03 PM EDT

Exactly, ShadowSparkle. And we all need to work on something where we can fit five cycles in one upgrade (e.g. one +). I will be starting on some AGs soon, so maybe someone else will work on them too. As long as my spreadsheet is used and the NW added per BA is compared (normalized by BA cost), comparisons should be easy.

[RX3]Cotillion April 23 2007 4:09 PM EDT

Any forgeable amulet should do... Anyone have an AoAC with a low RPM that they wouldn't mind loaning out for like an hour or so to a couple of people? I'll try to cover as much of the xfer fees as I can, but I'm poor. :D

smallpau1 - Go Blues [Lower My Fees] April 23 2007 4:22 PM EDT

ive got one

smallpau1 - Go Blues [Lower My Fees] April 23 2007 4:22 PM EDT

AoAC +10 Rough progress meter: 4.114%

[RX3]Cotillion April 23 2007 4:25 PM EDT

That jus may work, what is the xfer fee for like a 1 hour loan?

smallpau1 - Go Blues [Lower My Fees] April 23 2007 4:30 PM EDT

$24

The Vanguard April 23 2007 4:31 PM EDT

Would it not just be easier to do a complete cycle on the one weapon on just the x, and then buy the x so that it starts at zero again?

I think that my refresh rate is 8/10 if I can help yo u at all.

The Vanguard April 23 2007 4:32 PM EDT

Sorry for the double post but i forgot to say and post the results of the progress made after one complete cycle.

[RX3]Cotillion April 23 2007 4:34 PM EDT

well if its a cheesy weapon, it'll probably be upgraded real quick. Too quick to fit 5 cycles into one x or +.
As Defender said a few posts up, that he had forged a dagger to 100+ and then from 100-200+ with 2 different characters, but it has no soul. I'm not sure if katana's and stuff are comparable to say a Vorpal Blade or MH.

smallpau1 - Go Blues [Lower My Fees] April 23 2007 4:38 PM EDT

sending, or no?

[RX3]Cotillion April 23 2007 4:41 PM EDT

$24 for a one hour loan? ...thats quite cheap. We need 5 people to agree to do this, with quite different MPR's. I, myself, have a 1,050,000 MPR forger (Ruins). We need at least 4 others, like around 750k, 1.5m, 2m, 2.5m MPRs would be a nice range of data to work from.

smallpau1 - Go Blues [Lower My Fees] April 23 2007 4:47 PM EDT

$5,950 to send permanently, if you just want to do it that way to make it easier, its up to you guys though.

smallpau1 - Go Blues [Lower My Fees] April 23 2007 5:06 PM EDT

{cb1}smallpau1 (SmallsNCB) 24.107.213.13 RedEcksThree (Ruins) An Amulet of AC ($130354) -- for testing 5:04 PM EDT

This thread is PR enough for me, just so i get it back when you guys are done, hope you find what you need, =) Tis why i made an NCB was to forge with a better char. I sent it to redecks permanently so he can just send it to the next person when hes done.

QBsutekh137 April 23 2007 5:06 PM EDT

Sure, send it my way, I'll buy BA to work it for five cycles, will verify the recipe and get a reading for how much NW I add per cycle... Can you just send permanently? I should be able to work on it tonight! I assure you I will more than pay for the transfer fee in forging. *smile* Then I will send it on to RedEcks or whomever else is willing to work at least one cycle (but preferably five).

smallpau1 - Go Blues [Lower My Fees] April 23 2007 5:08 PM EDT

one weird thing though, i swear when i tested the xfer to see how much the perm xfer was it said $5,950, but then about 10 minutes later when i went to actually perm send it it was $6,700, just thought i'd let that be known, =X

Xenko April 23 2007 5:13 PM EDT

I'm interested in your work on forging and I could help out starting mid-next week. Anyways, a few points to consider:

1) You don't need to work on the same level item. You will always increase the item by the same amount of NW no matter what level it is, so you just convert the % increase to NW increase and you can compare a item that is being forged at any level. As long as you can complete one cycle without increasing the level, your results will be fine (you can do it even if you complete more than one cycle, it just takes a bit more math).

2) You don't necessarily need 5 cycles per item. Every step in forging (spell, cooling, tempering, and cooling) has two possible values for the increase: x and 1.125x. So you just need enough cycles to find these max and min values for each step, so you have 8 values you need to find. I haven't tested, but I think once you know the ratios between all of the values for a given item, you can interpolate all the values from 1 cycle within a few $ per BA.

3) I haven't collected enough data myself to know whether MPR or BA cost (or a combination of the two) determines how good forging is, but I suspect is a mixture of the two.

Anyways, those are my comments so far. Let me know if you need a hand with anything, and I'd be glad to help.

Xenko April 23 2007 5:16 PM EDT

"you can do it even if you complete more than one cycle"

errr, that should be "you can do it even if you increase a level" as in jump from +3 to +4 midway through the cycle.

[RX3]Cotillion April 23 2007 5:32 PM EDT

RedEcksThree (Caramon) 67.11.131.102 QBsutekh137 (Hubbell) An Amulet of AC ($130354) 5:30 PM EDT

Just so you know where your precious is SmallPau. :)

smallpau1 - Go Blues [Lower My Fees] April 23 2007 5:36 PM EDT

if you havent started yet, ill give you the BS money to up it 10 +11 to get it started at 0.000%

QBsutekh137 April 23 2007 6:25 PM EDT

Nah, I will finish it off then send it back -- it's for research, so I don't mind. *smile*

This is what I wrote to RedEcks:

---------
OK, yeah, you ended on a 0.677, I hit 0.692... AoAC is a TERRIBLE thing to forge, too. Short cycle, loss of a factor... wow, don't ever forge one. *smile* I think we need something bigger, and we should go for 10 cycles to do it right, but I am too lazy. The proof of concept showed I am slightly better (a bit over 2%), but I think you had luckier cycles, and I had lower luck cycles. So, it is hard to say. But items really do vary. I get a factor of 0.905 on the CG, and 0.692 on the AoAC... Once I find something north of 1.00, I can rack up more NW...
----------

I did better on what is the closest thing we have to a normalized factor (I think), so MPR does make a difference. The AoAC is absolutely awful. First off, it does not follow 2, 1, 5, 2, it follows 1, 1, 5, 2 on the RPM increase coefficients (using everything I tried). I don't doubt there is a better formula as far as RPM gains, but if it costs even one more BA, that means BA per cycle goes from 9 to 10 (an 11% increase in BA) for only a 10% incrase in NW gain. Short cycles flat-out SUCK.

As I state above, the increase per BA divided by BA cost for a Combat Gi is around 0.9. It is around 0.7 for an AoAC, which is just TERRIBLE. It is like the DBs were back on CB1 (maybe still are) -- short cycle with hard to reach sweetness.

Seeing that variance in factors, I am not too worried about more MPR meaning better forge yields -- I just need to find better stuff to forge. Once I am done with this click on NightStrike's CG, I will be onto some AGs and we will see how that goes...

Lochnivar April 23 2007 7:14 PM EDT

Wow, AoAC is brutal... Both the X and + on the SoD easily top 1.00 when your in an econ clan, the + being the better of the two.

On an (un)related note:

Has there been any analysis of the relationship between MPR:BA cost and Regen Rate:BA cost?

If we maintain that forge progress can be normalized to BA cost then the effect of MPR and Regen Rate on BA cost is really the relavent issue here.

smallpau1 - Go Blues [Lower My Fees] April 23 2007 7:21 PM EDT

well i have alot more items besides AoAC for you to test, my MH at +100, etc.

QBsutekh137 April 23 2007 7:44 PM EDT

Mach, that is why my spreadsheet works in BA cost (the actual amount you would have to pay to buy your BA) to normalize it even further. That accounts for the different regen rates as well as MPR growth between regen changes.

When I compared the .692 to the .677 above, it was already accounting for the fact that Red's BA cost 409 per and mine cost 555 per. Even with that, my overall factor was better (but still terrible because of the AoAC cycle dynamics...)

Xenko April 23 2007 8:43 PM EDT

I have my own spreadsheet where I have been looking at the TSA mostly, where I am analyzing NW increase per BA spent. I feel that the NW increase per BA spent allows a better comparison between any item, and it also tells you the minimum rate you need to charge to be profitable.

For instance, using a TSA, at an MPR of 630,708 with a BA cost of $329,
I was getting a minimum NW increase of $292 per BA (I believe this would be what Sut calls the no "luck" cycle), and a maximum NW increase of $329 per BA spent with "full luck".

With a Gi, I got values of $285 and $321 per BA.

It is thus straightforward to say the the TSA is more profitable to forge!

Those values are before forge fees and the rate you charge. At 15% forge fee and 70% rate, your profit on the TSA is between $161 and $181 per BA.

I've also started looking briefly at the effect of MPR and BA cost, although my data points are too limited to make any conclusions.

My $0.02.

QBsutekh137 April 24 2007 12:03 AM EDT

Exactly, Kultur! All I did was add a final normalization factor, dividing by the cost for a BA...that way, it is easier to compare someone at 8/10 and 7/10, for example. Your way is perfect for a direct, same-MPR, same_BA-cost comparison, though... Considering how much forgers under-charge, it is almost essential to know what items are sweeter than others!

Viva Geordi La Forge!

Lochnivar April 24 2007 4:22 AM EDT

Sute I'm not sure we're entirely on the same page...

My basic point is that the forge efficiency of an item is Independent of MPR. ie NW/BA divided by BA Cost should yield a constant once sufficient data points exist to minimize the effect of randomization.

With regards to the 0.692 vs 0.677, if the sample was as small as 5 cycles the approximately 2% difference is well within the expected variation.

I remember testing forge constants with someone a while back and the results were fairly conclusive that an item's forge efficiency was constant. Unfortunately a recent computer upgrade seems to have disappeared my spread sheets.

More testing of forging (say over 20 cycles) certainly wouldn't hurt although I'm fairly confident it will confirm that for all practical purposes NW per BA/BA Cost will produce a constant regardless of MPR and BA Cost.

All that aside, I'd still like to compile a list of MPR, BA Cost, and Regen rates for study, perhaps the wonderful forum readers could take a second to chatmail me the info.

Xenko April 24 2007 8:49 AM EDT

Machiavelli, I hear you.

There are two different problems that need to be addressed:
1) How "efficient" is it to forge each item in comparison to every other item.

2) How much does your efficiency change as you increase in MPR and/or BA Cost and/or BA regen rate?

Sut:
After looking at your spreadsheet a bit more carefully, I see what you have done and it works. I think I know what you want to calculate with the "luck" factor now, but I'm not convinced you are calculating it in the right way, but I'll have to look at your calculations in more depth next week once my semester is over and I have some free time.

QBsutekh137 April 24 2007 9:58 AM EDT

Yes, the luck part is very circular, so I don't think it means much. A better thing would be to simply go ten cycles instead of five and then just let the averages tell the tale.

In any case, my point is exactly the same as yours and Mach's, I just try to work every variable down into a single ratio for my own comparison purposes... The spreadsheet serves to analyze the cycle dynamics, verify if a formula follows 2, 1, 2, 5, and then reduces everything to an efficiency number that, over time, can be compared to other items...

QBsutekh137 April 24 2007 11:47 AM EDT

Mach, yes, I was on a different page. *smile* The final factors WILL be the same for an item, regardless of forger -- I forgot that was the whole point of my system. *smile*

I just created a 10-cycle analysis spreadsheet, and the standard and "sans luck" values are about the same. On a CoI, the factor is around 1.003, so it is a nice item to forge.

So really, and I feel like we have been here before), the key is to simply compare BA costs. Now that the 6/10 BA refresh rate is so large (spanning a large range of MPRs), we can compare within the same accrual rate.

I am at $555 per BA to buy. How much are other 6/10 folks paying? If you are 6/10, post your MPR and BA cost (non-bonus characters only). Then it will be easy to see forging "power" vs. MPR...

smallpau1 - Go Blues [Lower My Fees] April 24 2007 1:34 PM EDT

Anybody know what this might mean?

"AdminJonathan, October 19
actually, forge rewards are a constant multiple of fight rewards, at a given MPR"

Xenko April 24 2007 2:00 PM EDT

NW forged = Fight Rewards * X

So the amount you can forge is in some way proportional to the rewards you would get from fighting. You'll notice that fight rewards increase as you increase in MPR, as does your ability to forge. I am assuming that the must both increase at the same rate.

AdminNightStrike April 24 2007 2:19 PM EDT

I thought rewards only increased based on regen rate. Are you saying that every time I train, my base rewards will increase by a tiny amount?

[RX3]Cotillion April 24 2007 2:25 PM EDT

NS, do you mean that your rewards only increase from BA regen/10 to BA regen/9, 9 to 8, etc...? I've always thought rewards were based off of MPR.

AdminNightStrike April 24 2007 2:36 PM EDT

well, regen is based off of MPR, so that still holds true. It's just a question of whether it's an infinite linear scale, or if it's a 4-stage step function. Or, I guess, 5-stage now that there's 6/10.

Xenko April 24 2007 2:40 PM EDT

I think it is a 5-stage step function. I have no proof to back up this opinion...

[RX3]Cotillion April 24 2007 2:41 PM EDT

When I said I've always thought rewards were based off of MPR, I meant if I train 5k experience, my rewards are going to increase. Glad to see people trying to figure this stuff. Go CB Community Go

QBsutekh137 April 24 2007 3:04 PM EDT

Well, BA costs vary within each step, that much is certain. I am compiling a list of 6/10 folks' BA costs and will publish on Google in a bit. Not sure what it all means, but comparing to the top MPR, the ratio of MPR Diff % and BA Cost Diff % appears to be a constant number. You'd think I would know what that means, but you sure couldn't tell my looking now that I was a math major... :\

QBsutekh137 April 24 2007 3:46 PM EDT

Now I have a quandary... I have used LOGEST() to make a rough equation to convert MPR to BA cost... But in a sense, publishing of said equation will betray the confidence of those from whom I have asked for data! What should one do?

AdminNightStrike April 24 2007 4:31 PM EDT

Ask the people if they really care at all if others know what their BA cost is... I wouldn't consider that secret information. Some people are funny like that, though.

QBsutekh137 April 24 2007 5:01 PM EDT

Well, an equation shall not be held back!

First off, the values I gathered ranged from MPRs of around 1.60 million MPR up to the top, at 2.55 million MPR. The difference in BA cost between those two MPRs?

Around 8%.

So, that means someone around 60% of the top MPR only does around 8% less in forging "power". Forging power is all about the potency of a BA, and that potency is determined by BA cost (as far as I know). My equation for estimating BA cost (more later) would guess that someone with 1.25 million MPR (that's about half the top MPR) would have a BA cost difference (from the top) of around 11%. And for anyone about 1,000,000 MPR, you aren't going to be much more than 13-14% off the top dog when it comes to forging.

Now, considering that I have now forged items that range from a "efficiency" factor of 0.700 up to 1.000 (and I don't think 1.000 is the upper limit), the forging "sweetness" of an item varies FAR more than the gains one sees from forging at a higher MPR. According to my equation (and I would love for folks to verify the proverbial Hell out of it), someone at only 100K MPR would be forging at about 25% less power than the current top MPR character. In other words, if a 100K character were forging a CoI (1.000 on sweetness) and Koy were forging an AoAC (less than 0.700 sweetness), the 100K MPR character would likely out-forge Koy when it comes to net worth added per day (assuming similar BA usage down at the forge).

So, what is this equation, you ask?

First, one finds the "base" cost of a BA -- the cost it would be if a person were at full BA accrual (10/10). Here's what I have for that:

Base BA Cost = 270.4812156 * 1.000000083^MPR

That's what LOGEST() came up with in Excel. It looks goofy, but it seems to get pretty close.

One then takes the base rate and adjusts for BA accrual rate. For example, someone at 6/10 accrual would take Base BA Cost and multiply by 10/6. Letting BA accrual (number of BA accrued every ten minutes) be called "A", the overall equation becomes:

BA Cost = (270.4812156 * 1.000000083^MPR) * (10/A)

Let's try it. For me, the equation would be:

(270.4812156 * 1.000000083^2536314) * (10/6) = 556.43

My BA cost is $555. I verified this formula all the way down to BA costing $513, but all were in the 6/10 range. I would love to have folks in all different BA accrual ranges see if it gets close for them.

This will only work (well, work as much as it does) if you are all trained up in your MPR. This does not account for untrained experience. In other words, if this equation is shown to be relatively close, and you can get someone to tell you their BA cost, you can tell if they are hoarding experience. *smile*

Also, my formula looks crazy. There is no way Jonathan dreams up factors like that, so hopefully someone a lot smarter and more elegant than me will figure out the "right" way to express the equation...

[RX3]Cotillion April 24 2007 5:35 PM EDT

Great job Sutekh. If your results are correct then forging is more screwed up than we thought. What do we have to do next?

AdminNightStrike April 24 2007 5:55 PM EDT

NCB/NUB players should be able to normalize BA cost by reversing the N C/U Bonus. For instance, my BA cost is 1167. My bonus is 170%. So my normalized BA cost should be 432.222222. Does this sound about right for someone around 1.5m MPR at 7/10?

[RX3]Cotillion April 24 2007 5:57 PM EDT

I'm at 1m mpr and I have a 409 BA cost. I'm also 7/10...

QBsutekh137 April 24 2007 5:58 PM EDT

Forging isn't screwed up, the gains from MPR just aren't as big as some people think (and we should have known all along, since it is based on BA cost).

All we had to do was a BA cost analysis, and now it all makes sense.

What forgers need to do is be aware of what items are "good" to forge, and not buy BA to forge. Also, 70% is a rip-off rate (but then forgers already knew that). That rate has evolved from the fact that it is hard to beat nearly instant upgrades that folks can get at the blacksmith.

Also, the one thing this doesn't help a whit with is deciding if fight rewards are just as good as forging at 70%. Since it is likely the "base" reward for fighting is also linked to BA cost, forging doesn't have much of an advantage. Especially for folks at 6/10 who are exempt from negative challenge bonus, fighting is very likely about as good as forging low "sweetness" item, plus you get the experience. The higher MPR intrinsic to a 6/10 accrual player won't even make the forging benefit beat out a 10% clan bonus.

At this point, I am not sure I understand why forging even exists. Taking the classic example of a person using forging to increase their own net worth, it doesn't make sense. One can get just about as much cash from fighting and be growing experience at the same time. And using the example of forging to make cash faster (for folks who just like cash) doesn't make sense at current forging rates.

So I really have no idea where to go from here, RedEcks. *smile*

QBsutekh137 April 24 2007 6:03 PM EDT

Hm, my equation seems off for you, Red. It yields around 419, not 409...

NightStrike, someone at 1.5 million MPR will be at 6/10. 1.5 million MPR equates to a BA cost of about 510, and that falls into line with some of the figures people gave me...

But yes, the bonus should be able to be backed out from as well, I just didn't put that in my equation (I should have mentioned that).

[RX3]Cotillion April 24 2007 6:11 PM EDT

Ruins PR / MPR: 1,252,219 / 1,053,179

409 per BA. 7/10 regen rate.

AdminNightStrike April 24 2007 6:14 PM EDT

NightStrike, someone at 1.5 million MPR will be at 6/10.


Ok, maybe I over-estimated myself. I'm at 1.27m, and I have 14m or so untrained. I'll get my MPR off of my calculator in a moment.

DrAcO5676 [The Knighthood III] April 24 2007 6:14 PM EDT

You may purchase up to 432 BA at 513 apiece.

At 1.6 million mpr

AdminNightStrike April 24 2007 6:15 PM EDT

Also note that there are numerous MPR levels for which a BA cost is valid. Further, BA cost increases when you buy BA, regardless of whether you use it or not.

AdminNightStrike April 24 2007 6:19 PM EDT

If I trained everything right now, my MPR would be 1,476,727.

Now that was a very good totally ad hoc estimate, if I do say so myself!

Xenko April 24 2007 6:48 PM EDT

MPR - 673,331
Regen: 8/10
BA Cost - $332

Calculated BA Cost: 357.5

Your equation is a bit off, but it looks like a good start. Another factor you (might) need to consider is the top MPR is constantly increasing. I'm not sure if that would have any effect or not on your calculation.

Lochnivar April 24 2007 7:34 PM EDT

New Formula:

I played around with some data attempting to factor in regeneration rate and arrived at the following:

BA Cost * Regen Rate = 274.6*(MPR^0.169)
Or
BA Cost = (274.6*(MPR^0.169))/Regen Rate

On non-data set tests it appears to be within 1 CB on the BA cost.

Please test away folks!

Lochnivar April 24 2007 7:36 PM EDT

Oh, and I'm not entirely sure of the effect of untrained EXP on this!

QBsutekh137 April 24 2007 7:55 PM EDT

Don't know where you got that, but it's damn fine! Reports 553 on my 555 actual...

I suppose we just need a massive spreadsheet of 10/10 adjusted BA costs and then make a big LOGEST() estimate (or do whatever Mach did!)

Lochnivar April 24 2007 8:06 PM EDT

Sute,
That was based on 5 data points three 8/10, one 7/10, and one 6/10

I think untrained experience is relevant to BA cost so a good sized data sample for fully train characters would be necessary to tighten it down.

QBsutekh137 April 24 2007 8:25 PM EDT

Mach, you rock.

Sublime, that rhymes.

More data is good, so it seems that we should...

Gather more, fully trained to be sure!

-------

New challenge -- find how BA cost relates to "base" fight rewards so that the never-ending question: "Should I forge or should I fight?" is finally answered!

Hey, I'm just a project manager. Get on it, minions! *smile*

[RX3]Cotillion April 24 2007 8:27 PM EDT

Do you think a new thread strictly for data collection would be appropriate? Something like Data Collection: Forging , and ask our community to post MPR, BA cost and their BA refresh rate? oh, and make sure they have fully trained all of their exp possible?

Xenko April 24 2007 8:51 PM EDT

Yes I think a new thread would be best. Set out all the details in the first post so people know what to do (fully train, then give MPR and BA Cost and whatever else is desired).

[RX3]Cotillion April 24 2007 9:00 PM EDT

What exactly is 'whatever else is desired'? Step 1. Fully Train Exp. 2. Post MPR 3. Post BA Cost and Regeneration Rate / 10 minutes.

AdminNightStrike April 24 2007 9:13 PM EDT

I'll say it again -- buying BA increases your BA cost.

AdminNightStrike April 24 2007 9:13 PM EDT

To account for that, get your data while at zero BA (including zero to purchase)

[RX3]Cotillion April 24 2007 9:32 PM EDT

Well considering it'd cost me around 200k to buy all my ba, I wouldn't imagine forgers doing this. I don't think any of the more experienced forgers buy large amounts of BA. I guess fighters would be the only ones to really be able to help us out.

[RX3]Cotillion April 24 2007 9:53 PM EDT

Okay, I'm not sure I understand what you mean NS. I bought all of my BA and have 0 left. Yet my ba still costs 409, just as much as it did before I bought any BA... Could you try to explain to an idiot a little better?

Xenko April 24 2007 9:56 PM EDT

I think buying BA acts similar to "training" so that the cost after buying can be bigger, but that is just due to it now taking into account all the untrained XP on your character.

[RX3]Cotillion April 24 2007 10:06 PM EDT

So you are basically saying, if I were to buy all of my BA for today, and use all of my current BA the cost to buy BA should be higher correct? Well as I just said, I bought all of my BA for today, used it all, and my BA cost still remained at 409, which is the same as it was before.

AdminNightStrike April 24 2007 11:23 PM EDT

Kultur, you may be right. The easiest way to tell is to click the Buy BA link, buy 1 or none, and see if your MTL increased.

I personally don't think so, however. Jon mentioned once that the BA cost is based on "how big you can get with what you've got" or something to that effect.

To really see the effects of cost when buying BA, start an NCB.

QBsutekh137 April 25 2007 12:40 AM EDT

Starting at zero is an edge effect. Normal physics doesn't apply to the Big Bang, NS. But "Big Bang" physics is largely irrelevant to the rest of "normal" gameplay. *smile*

Nerevas April 25 2007 12:49 AM EDT

I've never heard of buying BA increasing your BA cost. BA cost is based on VMPR I believe. So if you buy BA, fight with it, and don't train the xp, your VMPR still goes up and your BA cost along with it.

AdminNightStrike April 25 2007 2:09 AM EDT

If you buy 30 BA, then buy another 30 BA without doing a single thing, the cost will increase at low levels.

Lochnivar April 25 2007 5:02 AM EDT

Re: Thread subject.

It just occured to me that the formula 274.6*(MPR^0.169) is the answer to the question originally posed.

The result gives you the baseline NW increase per 10min for any given MPR character when forging.

For a couple of examples:
a 1mil MPR char is a 48% better forger than a 100k MPR char
a 2mil MPR char is only 12.4% better than a 1mil MPR char
a 2mil char is in fact only 26.4% better than 500k MPR

meh, someone probably already noticed this

[RX3]Cotillion April 25 2007 9:14 AM EDT

Well I wont be buying a larger character anytime soon. Just seems like so much cash for little gain. The question of Fighting vs Forging still remains though.

QBsutekh137 April 25 2007 11:42 AM EDT

Mach, I made similar observations, except my equation was wrong! *smile* Your numbers sound right, and yes, the difference between the top MPR player and someone half that is not much, certainly not as much of an effect as forging an item with crappy "sweetness".

[RX3]Cotillion April 25 2007 11:54 AM EDT

I guess the only thing to do now is to compile a 'sweetness' chart and/or compare net income from fighting to net income from forging.

BTW, any way to do this with items that increase >100% per cycle? aka x on an axbow

QBsutekh137 April 25 2007 12:07 PM EDT

Red, it is possible, just needs a different method than I use.

You could go without the whole five-cycle thing, because if you know a formula is already sweet, all you really need to do is compare BA used to NW increase. Just choose a starting point (at 0.000 RPM), and stop when a cycle happens to land close to an RPM of 0.000 (but above it). That means you will be able to look at the exact NW of the weapon and see how it increased. Then, divide that NW by the BA used (total) and you have your NW per BA number. Divide that by BA cost and you have the factor for comparison.

WAIT! Even better idea... As you enter RPM numbers in the standard five-cycle spreadsheet, just keep going above 100. So, if a cycle takes a weapon around and into the next x, that would mean 100.00. If 2 x go per cycle, then you are up to 200, etc. In other words, just treat the RPM as a continuous number that can keep going above 100, 200, 300, etc. The x upgrade costs are constant, so that means the whole system should still work!

[RX3]Cotillion April 25 2007 12:24 PM EDT

Look at this and tell me if I did it right. Clicky

QBsutekh137 April 25 2007 12:36 PM EDT

Absolutely perfect, Red! Looks like a decent item to forge, better than a Combat Gi, anyway!

What was the item? Still says AoAC at the top... I assume it was some sort of weapon x?

[RX3]Cotillion April 25 2007 12:38 PM EDT

Oh my bad... an Axbow... Keep forgetting that damned title.

Do you have any tips on tweaking the cycle to be 'more efficient'?

The Vanguard April 25 2007 12:39 PM EDT

It is an Axbow.

QBOddBird April 25 2007 1:12 PM EDT

"Well considering it'd cost me around 200k to buy all my ba, I wouldn't imagine forgers doing this. I don't think any of the more experienced forgers buy large amounts of BA. I guess fighters would be the only ones to really be able to help us out. "

Some of the more experienced forgers...or one...does. I buy BA on occasion when doing a 75% job, because the 75% rate is just enough that I break even on the bought BA (minus BS fees). Means more work done for the employer at very little extra cost to the forger.

[RX3]Cotillion April 25 2007 1:13 PM EDT

Well I knew YOU did once a week. I guess it's a good thing to keep the job moving along. Kinda hesitant when you don't have much cash, but it's all in the name of science... errr rather Forging Study? :D...

[RX3]Cotillion April 26 2007 7:47 PM EDT

Actually looking back at that OB... What in the heck were you forging to break even at 75%? If I'm reading my chart right, at 75% I'd be losing $96 CB2 per BA, that would be around $50k for a full buyout of BA for me.

[RX3]Cotillion April 26 2007 7:49 PM EDT

Okay, wait, nevermind.. I think .... ... .... I forgot about the NW you'd be adding on... LOL

[RX3]Cotillion April 28 2007 2:55 AM EDT

bored ($575,254)/24 hours... Forging?

86,681 MPR...?! Glitch? Bug? what the hell?

Xenko April 28 2007 7:44 AM EDT

NUB
This thread is closed to new posts. However, you are welcome to reference it from a new thread; link this with the html <a href="/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0025Y9">Forging and MPR</a>