Confused about new "(base) to-Hit" stat ; ELB bug? (in General)

Ok, one of the recent changelogs says

"max dx-based chance to hit is 100 + base to hit (140 for 2h, 160 for 1h, 200 for elb). was 160 for all weapons. "

Also, the "to-hit" wiki page
http://www.carnageblender.com/wiki/To-hit
says some pretty confusing things (I suppose it's partially absolete), but nowhere is that previous "160 for all weapons" base to hit mentioned.
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My combat page now says :

"Ranged Base to-Hit 100
Ranged Bonus to-Hit 103"

I have An Elven Long Bow [6x960] (+10)
The 103 bonus comes almost exclusively from my ToA, and is about right (aprox 49 mil NW ToA, so 16.3 mil NW into the plus of an ELB).

However, I'm really confused about this "base to-hit" value quoted here, 100.
Not only that, but it appears that the ACTUAL results are consistent with a barely above 200% total chance to hit.

Why am I saying that ?
Because I had repeatedly attacked "Greneral Grievous" (solo char, Jigorokano familiar, ALL of his XP thrown into Steel Skin) to drain his score fast (he made an announcement not so long ago), and most of the time, I only hit his main character twice, even if I have a MAJOR DX advantage too (3.5 mil vs 20, no evasion) and an equivalent +103 on the weapon.

I thought I should be able to easily hit him 3 times, maybe even occasionally a 4th time.
Or am I completely wrong ?
And if I am, can somebody please explain exactly why ?

Hmm, maybe I spoke a bit too soon (or was extremely unlucky in the first few battles)... the chance to get a third hit is closer to 40% or so, not negligible as I first feared.

Still, I was expecting an almost certain 3rd hit, and the occasional 4th hit... what am I missing ?

I don't think you can get a 4th hit ever unless your third hit is certain. I think its a recent change for to-hit formulas. Check changelogs.

"max dx-based chance to hit is 100 + base to hit (140 for 2h, 160 for 1h, 200 for elb). was 160 for all weapons." ~ from "Damage adjustments"
100(max DX bonus) + 100(base) +103(bonus) - 60 (range penalty)? = 243

*sigh* I really should think before I hit sybmit. I mean melee round penalty for using a bow.

right, except for the melee penalty, which is 60% of the to-hit values, not a flat -60

(so, your max dx-based component will be 100 + 0.4 * 100, and the pth based part will be 0.4 * 103)

These are all ranged hits, not melee hits.
I finish the fight in 2 ranged rounds : first round his only minion, second his "Kano-san"

Oh wow, Mine's 100 base-to-hit too!


I could have sworn that it was 200 before; I was hitting occasional quints.

With

base hit 100
bonus to hit 206

Does that mean I now only hit triples, with the occasional quad??

In other words, I *think* it should be 100 + 200 (ELB) + 103 = 403 total.
Yet I seem to be getting around 250 tops.

Or am I missing something else too ?
Like some capping at some stages, or other cut-offs ?

And yes, in my case as well, these battles finish in ranged.

Base CTH is just the number associated with your weapon. Your dex CTH is calculated using this number, but it is not equivalent to this number. The cap for dex CTH is 100 + base, which for ELBs is 200. Thus, your Hal should have a max CTH of 200 + 206 = 406, which is a guaranteed quad with 6% of quints.

Ok, so in my case, it should have been 200 (capped) + 103 = 303, or guaranteed triples with the very, very occasional quads.
Right ?

Assuming completely maxed DX advantage, then yes.

Well, 3.5 mil vs 20 DX, I'd say that qualifies as max advantage, wouldn't you agree ? :)

P.S. Greneral Grevious retrained to evasion now, so I can no longer keep testing on him.

Perhaps you didn't notice that he had Haste trained?

He had only max-XP Steel Skin trained at that time, everything else was at base.