What's your take on the CB2 Economy. (in General)
February 21 2005 10:03 PM EST
As many of you have knowticed the economy of CB2 has had a major shift...downwards. People are no longer paying $40-$45 USD for 1 Million CB2...they are lucky now to get $20.
Will be see MCM and other rares follow suit? Will the $ value continue to be based on the items NW?
Any thoughts as to why?
Too much CB Money out in the game?
Money makers and sellers?
Too many farms?
Money to easily gained?
Or was it just a mad dash to get up on top?
Can it be repaired?
Let's hear from you.
February 21 2005 10:10 PM EST
i think alot of it has to do with the fact that the "food-chain" has already been established a this point, so people arnt trying to get the best weapons and armor anymore. I think this also has to do with the ToJ's out there... that are just massive. You dont need the money, the weapon or armor if you have a large tat.. just let it kill everything for you...
I think the usd market will still be alive but i would guess the big money will be coming from rare items, as it did in cb1. Corn, BoNe, Morg, BoT and the like....
these are just my thoughts on the matter.... who knows Doc?
February 21 2005 10:16 PM EST
It's a simple case of supply and demand. The $USD to $CB2 exchange rate was always going to drop as more money came into the game. There is nothing to be 'repaired'.
Call me crazy, but I expect the exchange rate will settle at a familiar $10 per million.
February 21 2005 10:17 PM EST
Here is what I think is going to happen.
The average user is going to have 1 mil CB2$ because of its low value. <---its too easily come by now for middle and higher range players.
This will drive the price of everything higher as anyone can now buy rares.
Paying 1-2 mil for a Corn will be to cheap.
The shift will be to $5 US for 1 mil...$20 for 4 mil ect.
A corn will then be 10 mil and its price will rise as the middle income people rise in money.
But...this is all fine and dandy for the established players.
What happens to the new players<-----??? Is there game over before it starts?
February 21 2005 11:11 PM EST
I think it will gravitate towards 10/mil. Remember in CB1 when it was 7-9/mil, it "fixed" it self towards 10/mil. It makes things easier for everyone.
I also beleive that the 2 top campers are hurting the game, since they are doing mainly USD sales. In CB1, the campers where a bit more spread out. So you *have* to shell out USD to get top items now. And I bought my tulkas from one of them...
The TOJ are a big factor too. In CB1, I had to reach 100kpr to earn 1Mil per week. Now, my tatto/enchanter char can do that, at 20kpr. I beleive the Tattoos wil eventually level out some, and wont be a neccesity. The other thing that helps is that, since it is somewhat easier to dump money into ranged weapons, some may end up there, eventually.
But what do I know, I was an Econ major in college...
I've been studying, researching, and attempting to develop economic systems for online games for about three years now. This does not make me an expert on such matters, but it leads me to believe (perhaps incorrectly) that I understand a little of the nature of the current market. To me, what we've seen the economy do so far is the common expectation.
USD$ -> CB2$
This market has been very predictable. At the beginning of CB2, we saw a high value per CB2$ due to the "newness" of the game. Everyone was earning a fairly low amount of CB2$ per day. However, even with the money sinks in the game, CB2 has an inflationary economy. The CB2$ will continue to drop as the game "stabilizes" the value of the CB2$, and will eventually settle down to a rate that is proportionate to the money sinks in the game. With the addition of Tattoos and their high transfer fees, it is difficult to predict where this value will settle at.
This market has seen a recent change in it's inflation level, due to Jon raising the number of votes for the Black Market to spawn items, and the nature of item spawns in the normal stores. The thing to keep in mind is that, while the CB2$ value is degrading rapidly from inflation, item valuations are degrading much slower than the CB2$. What this means is that, while the amount of CB2$ requested to purchase the item will rise (until the economy stabilizes), the amount of USD will stay roughly the same, and eventually start falling.
One thing that people need to understand is that inflation does not occur because of players buying/selling items and currency. Inflation occurs because items of value (both money and equipment) are being introduced into the economy in disproportionate amounts than they are being taken out of the economy. While USD sales are seen by many as a major factor contributing to the inflation of the economy, it must be realized that USD can only buy items of value that already exist in the game. USD sales in the game introduce an unusual element of a money market into the game, but this has relative little impact on global inflation.
Too Many Farms/Too Easy Money
This is one of the major sources of inflation in the CB2 Economy. To put it simply, until the economy stabilizes, we are making too much money. Keep in mind that this is a relative measurement of worth. For the early CB2 economy, too much items of value are being introduced into the system too fast. Once the CB2$ "stabilizes", this will no longer be the case. Stability will bring the perception that we are introducing items of value in an adequate rate to keep the economy balanced, which ultimately means little value variation.
Can It Be Repaired?
This is a very tough question. In once sense, all it would take to repair this is to wait long enough for the entire economy to stabilize. Due to lack of mechanisms to remove equipment from the game, this may take an extremely long time. The alternatives to this are widely debated, and usually involve concepts that players typically dislike (like item degradation, item loss, or constant non-optional money drains). Many of the new, and quite a few of the old, MMORPG's are investing in top economic talent to address the issue of a healthy economy in a simulated world. There are several excellent papers on why the Ultima Online and Everquest attempts at a "closed economy" failed. "Open economy" systems will always have inflation in them, although the differences come down to the rate of inflation. If you are interested in this subject matter (and trust me, it is fascinating), then I suggest that you search for Simulated World Economy and Game World Economy. You'll find a plethora of material on it, with many highly recognized games being listed as study sources.
My error. Simulated World Economy has to do with real world economics. Virtual World Economy is the one related to games.
February 22 2005 12:03 AM EST
I think it's funny how fast things are reaching CB1 levels, that is with everything except NW. I mean, CB1 had 3 years worth of money in it, CB2 has 2 months. However, exchange rate is starting to match up, rares are starting to be priced nearly the same, and people are holding about the same amount.
Look at top pr. Is it over 300k yet? How long did that take in CB1? Granted it was different, you had to factor in changes and rescales, but the fact remains, we're gonna see 2 mil and 3 mil pr FAR faster.
Undertow, this has more to do with education level than economy. The top players in CB2 are (typically) experienced CB1 players. The systems are very similar, and they've already paid their dues in the form of strategy and equipment mistakes. A real world analogy is the industrial revolution. It took decades that lead to the first major industrial town, but once the education and innovation was established, it was very easy (for areas with similar resources) to implement the same ideas. Even today, one of the major limiting factors that prevents "Third World" countries from entering the same life style as the major countries is a lack of resources (in the form of materials, education, and culture).
February 22 2005 12:11 AM EST
I think it's an easy reason. People are afraid to invest. A lot of the people in CB1 are bored now or don't feel it's safe to pump major USD in the game. Most of my friends playing will only play to try and make back what they lost in CB1
February 22 2005 5:38 AM EST
The exchange between CB1 to Cb2 have make a concentration of the money on few players.Myself sold my stuff to bring money in Cb2 and i still do, over 1 million of CB2 make.Others sell for Cb1 stuff and money.Even the rate of CB2 CB1 have collapse.This trend create a concentration of money.
February 22 2005 9:29 AM EST
Bubo - very good points. But don't forget that the money supply is dictated by the number of fights. The only way CB $ gets created is if someone spends BA to fight someone else. More users means more BA spent means more CB $ (to the winner or loser). USD represents a foreign exchange currency, and the FX rate will stabilize eventually.
February 27 2005 5:24 PM EST
It would make more sense if at LEAST a portion of the money won in battles were from the victim and vice versa if the attacker lost. This wouldn't suck up as much CB2 $ like you guys were talking about. Now I know that there is always going to be a flaw but why not try it plus it would get banks rolling and that should help the economy. Last resort slowly rise the prices of everything and stop making the ToJs. There about 300:1 ToJ to a ToF and others like it. Suck them in for money and get them out. However I doubt this will happen...Just some suggestions for you all...take em or leave em...good discussion posts
February 27 2005 10:35 PM EST
Money to easily gained?
A new useur can do 1 million in 1 week.In CB1 that was impossible.
I disagree with Ryu. The rewards doled out in CB1 were about 4x what they are in cb2 by my estimation. I could easily earn around 700k per day in cb1. Any newbie could easily rent similar equipment and earn at least that much per day. I think that CB1 simply outgrew its code; look at the new x27 ELB's, (14 million damage per hit). Also it has been long known that if Todd/Spydah had spent all of the money they sold on armor, they would have acheived the AC to become "invincable" long ago. I don't think anyone knows whether any of these things are possible in CB2, however if they are I think they will take much longer to accomplish. I agree with others however that the exchange rate will normalize to $10 per million. Only because we have an entire slew (myself included) that are willing to sell their in game cash for USD. People in CB1 were much more greedy. :)
February 28 2005 12:50 AM EST
Even renting the best stuff in the game will cost the new player across 100K a day and a 10K pr mage FB will kill him in 1 shot you cannot rent defense.You can rent HP dex in CB2 via TOJ.
Around 100K of score i was making in CB1 around 200 to 300$ i the same range in CB2 i do from 120 to 240.(CB1 cash production is base of what i was doing about 12 month ago in CB1)
From what i saw i far from the 4X you speak of.
February 28 2005 7:30 PM EST
ToJ's are decreasing the economy of the game alot. As an example, Ill use one of my friends, YannyFan54 just rented ToJ's, earned money and soldf the money to me for stuff on KoL. Now he easily reahed like 25k pr in a short time and amassed a good like 400k with only renting tats of insane proportions. I love the addition of tats but i also hate it. In my opinion its making the economy weaker... We need like arrows that target famliars and do extra damage to them ;-) anyway, thats not the point know is it?
I think the top campers trying to make a quick hundred bucks off the Rares is hurting it aswell. I mean i cant really access USD to trade for items on the game and if i can its reserved for supporterships and namings. I earned all of my stuff and only spend 10 bucks for my supportership. And Im proud that I have all this without spending USD.
Id like to see the USD / Cb2 Cap at about 1 mil for 10 usd. I dont really like usd for cb2 trades and thats probly because i cant really do that >.<
All in All i think the Tats like ToA and ToJ and ToE are making it so people dont have to buy expensive gear. They just level up there tats insanly high them sell all the money for USD.
Man I hate Spell check. I hate it, I hate it, I hate it.
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