Rares On the Endangered List! (in General)

Barron [CB2BANK Investors Club] September 13 2005 11:22 PM EDT

Read all about it! Rares will become extinct in the foreseeable future!!

Yes. At the rate that the rare items are spit out and auctioned, in combination with the dwindling cb2 money supply, rare items will soon sell for relatively cheap prices, making them economically available to the common folk :).

What is a rare? Something that is rare, coveted, difficult to obtain, no easily found, expensive to obtain, infrequently available, blah, blah.

We are entering into a socialist CB2 economy.

[EG] Almuric September 13 2005 11:30 PM EDT

"The sky is falling! The sky is falling!"

QBsutekh137 September 14 2005 12:01 AM EDT

Can I get a reality check here?

Why do people keep saying that rares are "spawning more". Are they really? I thought rares were simply spawning to auctions instead of stores, but at the same rate. So why do people keep saying rares are becoming less rare?

Can someone explain that to me? Use very small words, because apparently I am dense.

Stephen Young September 14 2005 12:05 AM EDT

/me holds up a sign that says "I'm as clueless as Sutekh."

CoolWater September 14 2005 12:08 AM EDT

sutekh, even before the recent changes to spawned rares, the numbers of rares spawned into store were already too many. You can just simply compare it to the rares in CB1. Just take an example of a Morgul Hammer, currently there are only 76 of them in 4 years of CB1 and we have 40 in CB2 in less than a year.

Shark September 14 2005 12:09 AM EDT

okey I have been very quiet lately, but I think its the fact that they are just seeing them more now instead of the hated campers squirreling them away such as they liked to do..Maybe not more "so called Rare Items" just more visible now than before the death of camping

(CB1)logan666 [Jago] September 14 2005 12:40 AM EDT

How can you say that more rares are spawning? Have you checked the auctioneers log where it tells you what is or has been in auctions? Checking his log I'd say roughly around 8-9 rares(not counting ammo) spawn daily. When I camped and would check store logs regularly 8-9 rares daily(not counting lesser tats as tons of those spawned) was common. As for cb2 money supply dwindling I kind of agree with you about that but I'm sure Jon will do something if it gets out of hand.

LumpBot September 14 2005 12:45 AM EDT

Logan, 8-9 rares would be an awesome day at the store. Usually the store spawned 5-6, and it was closer to 3-4 on most days. Only big days were Tuesday, Saturday, and Sunday.

sssimmo September 14 2005 12:49 AM EDT

So money is being sucked out by auctioneer. That just means that $1 CB2 is more valuable than it used to. Eventually it will get to a steady value. This means though that NW increase will be a lot slower.

LumpBot September 14 2005 1:02 AM EDT

Didn't I say all this last week? Maybe half of my CB comments are ignored because I used to be a camper, but I allready mentioned that the cash being drained from auctions would increase the value of Cb2 pr USD and further spread the gap between the top 10 and the rest. Even NUB can't give you all the NW that the top guys have.

Lumpy Koala September 14 2005 1:13 AM EDT

why does increased value of CB2 per USD would make a bigger difference ? Isn't that will some how make a big spender to think twice before buying 1mil CB2 for 25USD (for example) ?

Rares aren't spawning any faster from what I see, if you compare to Gaza's weekly store spawn report a while ago. It's at the same rate.

[T]Vestax September 14 2005 1:19 AM EDT

How did you make that fantastic leap from having to spend more real money to buy the same one million CBD to this being an advantage to the top players who buy with USD. Seriously, it would be exactly the opposite since they can't buy as much with real money.

Lumpy Koala September 14 2005 1:25 AM EDT

Exactly, Vestax sure makes a clearer sentence than me :) And I still think he lives in CB ...

Undertow September 14 2005 1:31 AM EDT

I don't if I agree, but I see his point.

All the top players, who have already spent USD at what would be "cheaper" prices, won't have the competition of everyone else being able to buy CB2 at the rates they've gotten.

It's like if you watching a car race, and someone pulls really far ahead, and then everyone MPG is cut in half. His lead is now twice as substantial.

Undertow September 14 2005 1:31 AM EDT

I don't know if I agree*

LumpBot September 14 2005 10:23 AM EDT

Sheesh, I make one minor error! It would increase the value of USD per CB2 not the other way around =P
In other words CB will no longer be 15 USD per million but would just keep gaining $1 at a time. I know I wrote it wrong before, but I didn't proofread myself.

HunterFrei September 14 2005 12:34 PM EDT

I'm fairly certain that rares are indeed spawning more frequently.

But why is this?

I've been told that "item spawns" are based on the amount of fighting in the past day or so. Now, these more common "rares" are almost needed to be able to compete at higher scores,mainly for tanks. Hence, since more people are getting higher scores, more rares are spawned to accomidate them.

AdminJonathan September 14 2005 12:50 PM EDT

"since more people are getting higher scores, more rares are spawned to accomidate [sic] them"


[T]Vestax September 14 2005 12:55 PM EDT

"amount of fighting" should translate to the amount of BA consumption not to the current highest score.

maulaxe September 14 2005 12:56 PM EDT

you are trying to say that rares will become, umm ...rare? in the future?

QBsutekh137 September 14 2005 1:06 PM EDT

CoolWater, a little history:

Morgul Hammers were not always around on CB1. They were introduced later.

So, let's make a more valid comparison: Lochs and BoNEs.

On CB1, there are 145 Lochs extant.
On CB2, there are 42 BNEs extant.
Ratio of CB1 count to CB2 count: 3.45

CB1 lifetime (using January 1, 2003 as when it really started going strong): 2.75 years
CB2 lifetime 0.75 years.
Ratio of CB1 lifespan to CB2 lifespan: 3.67

3.45 is _dang_ close to 3.67.

So, again (and without getting bogged down with the USD crap), can someone tell me how they think rares are less rare now?

HunterFrei September 14 2005 1:11 PM EDT

Ok, let me try that last sentence again.

Since more BA is used per day, there is an influx in the amount of money in CB. With more money being "brought in," there should also be more items to spend the money on?

Starseed^Lure September 14 2005 1:21 PM EDT

Isn't the number of rares spawned ~proportional to the number of fights in a day? Could it be that we're seeing more spawns because campers are now fighting?

Unappreciated Misnomer September 14 2005 1:23 PM EDT

you guys are never happy, when its ' there are not enough rares, everyone keeps having to buy regular stuff from the store' now its ' there is too many, blah blah blah' this is waht you all wanted right , to get those items which gives you a bonus, well get them before john turns off the tap, i think the reason there are more rares are simple.

RAMPAGE September 14 2005 2:44 PM EDT

It is the classic" Let me in , Now lock the door"syndrome.
When you need an item there aren't enough of them in the game but once you get one then you don't want any more added to keep the value of your high.

QBsutekh137 September 14 2005 3:15 PM EDT

An excellent point, Seeker. I would assume Jonathan is still using the same "spawn logic" for rares, so what you mention is a very good possibility (if it is even true in the first place...haven't really seen any proof that "OMG RARES ARE SPAWNING LIKE CRAZY!!!!!" just yet. *smile*)

Caedmon [Revenge of the Forgers] September 14 2005 3:28 PM EDT

Folks, when you see Morgs swimming upstream, then you can complain. Until then, rares are rare.

Tenchi Muyo September 14 2005 3:30 PM EDT

How are rares more common? From the changelog, it just seems they spawn in auction rather than store, exact same number of rares will appear in the same amount of time.

The only difference is now there isn't somebody camping a store to buy them for almost nothing and resell them for millions.

Barron [CB2BANK Investors Club] September 14 2005 3:32 PM EDT

I'd like to clarify that although my original post might have been interpreted to suggest that rares were spawning more frequently, I really didn't say that. That may or may not be the case, depending on the fight activity for the day. However, since the auctioneer ONLY accepts CB2, what is relevant is that the cb2 cash supply must be decreasing. Until that cash supply dwindles significantly, rares will become relatively much cheaper than they have been recently. After we may encounter a depression where even though the rare is cheap, money will be much harder to come by to get it.

AdminJonathan September 14 2005 3:43 PM EDT

those people claiming that there will be massive depreciation because auction proceeds vaporize are idiots

do a little math before crying wolf, people

Barron [CB2BANK Investors Club] September 14 2005 3:56 PM EDT

I'm still thinking this through--and I may be totally wrong.

Before: 100% of new rares were camped and sold for cb2 &/or usd.
Now: 100% of new rares are auctioned for cb2

Assumption 1: The amount of cb2 generated will increase to keep the prices of the rares stable

Assumption 2: Cb2 generated can't keep up and prices of rares will decrease.

I'm not an economics wizard, but I think that one of those 2 assumptions will become evident in the next few months.

Shark September 14 2005 4:04 PM EDT

heh just bring back camping in a few months and all will be fine and business as usual (v)oO(v)

Barron [CB2BANK Investors Club] September 14 2005 4:11 PM EDT

Lousy idea, RIP Van Sharkles. I'm not trying to bring back camping. But possible solutions are:
1. Increase cb2 rewards and cb2 production in the game
2. Decrease spawn rate of rares.

Caedmon [Revenge of the Forgers] September 14 2005 6:32 PM EDT

Decrease the rate of rare spawning to what, exactly? As I write this, the auctioneer has spawned the following in the last 24h:

CoI (1)
SC (1)
ToE (1)
Exec (1)

plus assorted rare ammo, which I assume isn't in the discussion. Realize that the majority of rares in auctions did not spawn (in the old sense of spawning), but rather came from the black market, or people selling their stuff. One rare every six hours sounds pretty familiar to me, doesn't it?

{CB1ate}aupStar September 14 2005 10:04 PM EDT

Isn't the number of people playing CB2 frequently greater than the number of people playing CB1 frequently..? o_O

[EG] Almuric September 14 2005 10:31 PM EDT

213,457 battles served in the past 24h

At an average of, say, $100 per fight (which seems low, but I'm being conservative), $21 million CB entered the economy over the last day. Did that much get spent on rares?

Even after healing and buying ammo, I think there's more than enough money left over for all the other tasks that require money.

I would go so far as to guess that the number of rares spawned is directly proportional to the number of players actively playing, which is pretty much proportional to the amount of money entering the economy.

Good ole Jon. Maybe he's not so dumb after all.

Grim Reaper September 14 2005 11:07 PM EDT

you forgetting nub players

LumpBot September 15 2005 12:46 AM EDT

Almuric, that is a very bad way to do the math. Because frankly, no one can win without NW. Nearly all the cash for people go into NW and not base items.
As for Jon, I would LOVE for you to briefly explain how all the cash that went into other players pockets is the same as all the CB cash going into a black hole such as Central Bank. I don't think any math is involved to show that eventually CB cash will be worth more per USD, although I think the rare prices will stay the same because people will be the deciding factor on bids.

Shark September 15 2005 1:26 AM EDT

not much appealing about all this any more is there?

CoolWater September 15 2005 3:26 AM EDT

Almuric, don't forget how many of those battles were from purchased BA.

AdminShade September 15 2005 8:18 AM EDT

the amount of items spawned in the store is related to the amount of battles done.

1 day of nobody fighting = no spawns then i think

QBBast [Hidden Agenda] September 15 2005 8:25 AM EDT

Let's test that.

AdminG Beee September 15 2005 8:35 AM EDT

Today CB has $855,739,715 total liquid assets

It was ~$800m when camping changelog was posted if I'm not mistaken.

It doesn't look like we have a "dwindling cb2 money supply" and it's not correct to say this increase results from NUB alone imo. I don't believe CB2 economy is suffering as a result of this change.

WeaponX September 15 2005 8:44 AM EDT

G_Beee you can't judge this in a matter of days. a change like this has more long term effects than short term

AdminG Beee September 15 2005 8:49 AM EDT

LOL, you waited until the 42nd post on this thread to say that Mega!!?

Bravo, touch of class.

Nixon Jibfest September 15 2005 9:03 AM EDT

I did a quick calculation of auctioneer sales between Sept 4 to Sept 13 on rare items (not including ammo).

Total sales: $37,676,640

AdminG Beee September 15 2005 9:08 AM EDT

Now go do a similar count on the FS/WTB threads for rares on the 9 days before the changelog ;)

Nixon Jibfest September 15 2005 9:23 AM EDT


That's way too much work and as a federal employee, I'm not used to doing that much work.

Jonathan, is it possible to show a stat on the community page to track how much money the auctioneer and blacksmith makes?

[EG] Almuric September 15 2005 9:30 AM EDT

Almuric, that is a very bad way to do the math. Because frankly, no one can win without NW. Nearly all the cash for people go into NW and not base items.

Boggle. Well... yeah. Caedmon provided a list of the rare items that spawned in that time. If those things sold for, say $3 million, that still leaves $18 mil. Some of that is spent on BA. Some of that is spent on upgrading items. Some of that is saved for a rainy day. No one except Jon could tell us exactly how much is spent on each, but I would say that there is a positive cash flow into CB via fighting.

The CB$-to-US$ conversion ratio is almost completely independent of how much CB$ is generated. It's really just a function of demand here. (Yes, supply is part of it, but the supply is steady and increasing at the same rate that new players are being added, for all intents and purposes.) So really, it's just demand. If lots of people are buying, price goes up, and vice-versa.

Answer me this: If no one were buying with US$, what would people use their excess CB$ for? Not everyone has a use for it. What means would we use to get the excess cash a mage character has over to a tank character who really needs it? There'd have to be some in-game system where I give him value and he gives me CB$. Perhaps a promise to take him off my fight list. Entrance to a clan? Drawing of a character picture?

Looking at the top 70 richest characters, I see about $300 mil in loose cash. That's a lot of rares to be bought and a lot of NW to add. As long as new players continue to enter the game, rares will remain relatively rare and as long as people continue to fight, more and more CB$ will enter the economy.

The sky is not falling and the CB economy is very healthy. (Speaking as someone who's been playing this game for a long time and programs complex financial calculation programs for a very large bank.)

QBJohnnywas September 15 2005 9:45 AM EDT

I've been away two weeks and this camping change - well I can't say I'm not surprised but still... whoah...

But - and apologies to all those whose game was camping/trading rares - my game is fighting and building up my character and to see rares in auction that I can actually afford to buy.... I like it.

Ever since the NW/PR changes I was expecting camping to take a hit. I also remember the discussions/whining about how that was going to collapse the CB economy and lose players by the ton. I'm still waiting for that to happen.

Rares will be rares I think, and money will still change hands for them. The only difference I can see is that a minority now cease to make big money when they enter the market.

sssimmo September 15 2005 9:53 AM EDT

Rares on the endangered list? There's plenty of Lochs in the store. Pffft.
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