Forging efficiency drop? (in General)

QBOddBird February 11 2007 10:13 AM EST

I've noticed that recently the amount of % increase I'm getting per BA cycle is dropping - when I started this job, I was generally getting between a .068 and .07% increase per forge cycle. That number has dropped to as low as .064 and I've not seen anything close to the .07% range in a while - is my forging efficiency decreasing as my score drops or something?

AdminG Beee February 11 2007 10:16 AM EST

What are you forging?
If it's the + (I suspect it is given the low increase you're talking about) then your efficiency will drop as the NW gain increases. I think that's even the case in-between advances...?

QBOddBird February 11 2007 10:20 AM EST

Forging a pair of HGs from

NW: $9,794,097


NW: $17,794,832

so that shouldn't be the case. Oh, and I just dipped down to .063%. Granted, I know that's not a large difference between the two numbers, but when I'm trying to get to 100.00% in such small increases, every little decimal number means quite a bit...

QBRanger February 11 2007 10:25 AM EST

But the real question:

Is 8M NW worth an extra 3% missile damage when your already doing over 1M a hit?

QBOddBird February 11 2007 10:26 AM EST

HGs, Dr. Popsicle, not BGs

bartjan February 11 2007 10:40 AM EST

I think "in-between" may be the magic word in here...

QBRanger February 11 2007 10:40 AM EST

Then I stand corrected.
But is the extra +1 on the HGs worth the 8M NW and loss of all that xp you would get from fighting?

AdminQBnovice [Cult of the Valaraukar] February 11 2007 11:46 AM EST

for someone planning on having a giant UC minion (NightStrike), it makes lots and lots of sense...

AdminQBnovice [Cult of the Valaraukar] February 11 2007 11:48 AM EST

I suspect you're seeing the randomness the hardcore forgers talk about...

QBOddBird February 11 2007 11:53 AM EST

Right, but before I was getting between .068 and .07 - now the highest I've recorded this morning was .065 and the lowest was .063 - that indicates that something's different than when I started on these a week ago. Maybe I was getting super lucky on the randomness then and not so much now, but it doesn't appear that way to me.

Lochnivar February 11 2007 1:04 PM EST

Oddbird is definitely on to something here.

I'm currently forging the x on my SoD and the efficiency has dropped by about 7% compared to what it was a couple of days ago. (0.960 vs 1.035)

It has been my experience that the normal 'randomness' at the forge runs +/- 5% from the mean. I've had once cycle this time around that was -11% from the previous average.

Furthermore, the single least efficient cycle in my previous bouts of forging was more efficient than anything I've done today.

And yes my character was in a clan with similar, if not identical, mpr. And my BA cost is constant.

Disturbing this trend is...

Caedmon [Revenge of the Forgers] February 11 2007 1:17 PM EST

forging has an intrinsic 10% randomness, applied to each of the four RPM increases, so most of the time you only notice the 5% or so you mentioned. Also, the round-off in the display of RPM because more noticeable at higher +'s.

Lochnivar February 11 2007 2:07 PM EST

I think the intrinsic randomness does not explain fully the results I am seeing.
Case A:
Based on my original data set (about 15 to 20 cycles) the average forge efficiency on the x of my SoD was approximately 1.035 * BA Cost.

Case B:
After 9 cycles today the efficiency is approximately 0.980 * BA Cost.

Since my BA cost and the upgrade cost are fixed the variation must be cause by some other factor.

It is also interesting to note that in Case B not one single cycle was as productivity of the average for Case A

It has been a while since I did stats so I won't try for a statistical significance test here but it certainly seems to satisfy the duck standard of proof.
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