Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and refinement of the budgetary projections.
But, seriously, who worries about disclaimers? There's a vote to ram through, ya know. As to the claim of saving a trillion dollars over the second decade, skip to page three:
Although CBO does not generally provide cost estimates beyond the 10-year budget projection period, certain Congressional rules require some information about the budgetary impact of legislation in subsequent decades, and many Members have requested CBOﾒs analyses of the long-term budgetary impact of broad changes in the nationﾒs health care and health insurance systems. Therefore, CBO has developed a rough outlook for the decade following the 2010-2019 period by grouping the elements of the legislation into broad categories and (together with the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation) assessing the rate at which the budgetary impact of each of those broad categories is likely to increase over time. Our analysis indicates that H.R. 3590, as passed by the Senate, would reduce federal budget deficits over the ensuing decade relative to those projected under current lawﾗwith a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The imprecision of that calculation reflects the even greater degree of uncertainty that attends to it, compared with CBOﾒs 10-year budget estimates.
I'm filled with confidence in that trillion-dollar savings quote, Fex. Next, turn to page eight and look at the chart detailing positive income from penalty payments and excise taxes. Do you really believe that the federal government will take in thirty-two billion dollars from excise taxes on high-cost insurance plans? Do you really believe that the federal government will grab fifty-two billion dollars through penalties on businesses? I, for one, don't believe that for a second.
Oh, and let's not forget that this legislation doesn't include the so-called Doc Fix, which has a projected cost in the $200-billion range, and would quickly eat away at the projected savings which you are touting above.
And don't get me started on the attempt to nationalize the student loan industry.