NUB/NCB recalibration (in Changelog)


AdminJonathan November 15 2005 7:29 PM EST

My goal was to calibrate the bonus such that a char under bonus can achieve 95% of the XP earned by a veteran, given equivalent effort. (This is not the place to argue with the 95% number or the duration of the NUB. I'm just setting out the facts here.)

In math, we represent this as finding a bonus N such that

0.95 * [vet's xp in 12.5 months] = (1 + N) * [new user's bonus-less xp in 4 months]

Let's normalize to xp per 1 month (XPM):

0.95 * 12.5 * [vet's XPM] = (1 + N) * 4 * [NUB XPM]

But this assumes equivalent effort. We need to adjust for one or the other fighting more battles per month (BPM). In other words, we don't want to penalize a new user for fighting extra battles, or reward him for fighting less, when we proceed to use actual numbers to calculate N:

0.95 * 12.5 * [vet's XPM] / [vet's BPM] = (1 + N) * 4 * [NUB XPM] / [NUB BPM]

Equivalently,

0.95 * 12.5 * [vet's XPB] = (1 + N) * 4 * [NUB XPB]

where XPB = XP/battle = XPM / BPM.

Now solving for the "correct" NUB is trivial.

N = -1 + (0.95 * 12.5 * [vet's XPM] * [NUB BPM]) / (4 * [NUB XPM] * [vet's BPM])

Now we can start plugging in numbers. We'll pick Ranger's and Kitty's numbers as the highest vet and NUB representatives, respectively -- for this we want to use maxima, not averages.

        battles     xp       months played*    BPM       XPM**      XPB**
Ranger   400223  47332812        10.6         37756     4115896      118
Kitty    125939  43540595        2.99         42120     6331335      150
* actually "sets of 30 days played"
** kitty's current bonus is 1.3, so XPM had to be divided by 2.3

N = -1 + (0.95 * 12.5 * 4115896 * 42120) / (4 * 6331335 * 37756)
  = 1.15

Thus, all NUB and NCB have been multiplied by (1.15 / 1.3) = 0.887, adjusted for the lifetime of the bonus. E.g., kitty's new bonus is about 0.71 for its remaining month.

I'm explicit about the process here to the point of tedium for the benefit of those of you who still keep an open mind. Those of you who do not will continue to hate on the NUB anyway, of course.

Final thought: you might think from the BPM numbers that Kitty's lead is due to larger BA purchases. This is not the case; both purchase about the same amount -- which is to say, Ranger has bought about 3x as much as Kitty, having been around about 3x as long. In any case, chosing to spend money on BA instead of items is a strategic choice; the only problematic area is when USD comes in, but trying to USD-proof CB is not what is being addressed here.

{CB3}-HR22 November 15 2005 7:42 PM EST

good

tscm November 15 2005 7:43 PM EST

Good.

Synco November 15 2005 7:44 PM EST

Nice!

Wonderpuff November 15 2005 7:50 PM EST

So was that modifier applied to duration AND value? I read above that the value shrank, but confused by the duration shrinking as well.

Grim Reaper November 15 2005 7:57 PM EST

great, my bonus is gone and it isn't november 23 yet

Wonderpuff November 15 2005 8:07 PM EST

The only solution I can come up with is that backwards-applying the decrease to my NUB lowers it to 0.

Bootsanator November 15 2005 8:09 PM EST

does the recalibration affect the price of BA also? b/c my BA cost is lower now, went from 715 to 544 each

QBOddBird November 15 2005 8:10 PM EST

Perfect timing. Mine just expired. (^>^)

Wonderpuff November 15 2005 8:13 PM EST

My NUB was just about done anyways, so I'm not sure that I care. But the formula ended up getting a bit jacked by using ranger's XPM. His absurd PR tweaks his XPM downards significantly. Did the calculation also include Ranger's multiple fire/rehires?

QBRanger November 15 2005 8:22 PM EST

WP,

My NW has nothing to do with the calculations.

Its all based on XP earned. True my NW raises my PR but my rewards are fairly stable even if I drop most of my NW and fight lower.


Lumpy Koala November 15 2005 8:46 PM EST

Nice change. I am sure 11% doesn't prohibit them passing me :P But at least some discount.

Lumpy Koala November 15 2005 8:58 PM EST

Just a question, is the total XP earned calculated from Ranger's current MPR ? or it's a recorded XP amount in database ?

I remember Ranger learned and unlearned, fire and re-hire couple of times. While Kitty... I don't see any news about her doing all sorts of those things. Total XP used might not be accurate for Ranger.

Relic November 15 2005 9:13 PM EST

Is this change retroactive? My bonus still appears as 171%...

QBRanger November 15 2005 9:57 PM EST

Jon,

One question,

Where is the 12.5 months from? As the game is only 10.5 months old now I cannot figure the 12.5.

If my question is out of line, sry ahead of time.

Wonderpuff November 15 2005 10:11 PM EST

To clarify my question:

It appears that some people had no change to their duration of NUB, while other people lost their NUB entirely. Still others seem to have had no effect at all. Was this intentional?

! Love Barney November 15 2005 10:12 PM EST

i lost my NUB and i still had what? 1 week left?

AdminJonathan November 15 2005 11:33 PM EST

* Doh! Ranger is right. 12.5 should be 11.5 (the number of "months" finished when Kitty's NUB ends). The new magic number is 0.98 instead of 1.15.

* Re-applied the adjustment, and fixed it for the NCB guys.

* Yes, if your bonus disappeared entirely it's because the adjustment would have been to a negative "bonus." You should thank me instead of complaining. :)

QBOddBird November 15 2005 11:37 PM EST

Yay for balance!

Jon, you're just too hot.

Dignifried Bean [|Cheese It|] November 15 2005 11:53 PM EST

My 2-day old NCB char (also named Tyr) just lost it's NCB status. Is this temporary? or what?

MrC [DodgingTheEvilForgeFees] November 16 2005 12:04 AM EST

I'm sorry, but maths was never my strong point.
Can someone please explain this in English?

A) Why have I now lost my NCB? - I gather that I would have been getting a negative bonus due to the change, so it was removed. But I'd still like to know why my 2 day old char lost his NCB bonus.
B) What exactly does this change do?

AdminJonathan November 16 2005 12:25 AM EST

fixed NCBs that were incorrectly terminated

wow, that was harder than I thought :)

Dignifried Bean [|Cheese It|] November 16 2005 12:29 AM EST

It's fixed already. Thank-you Jon!

Bootsanator November 16 2005 12:30 AM EST

woahwoahwoah....my NUB dropped to 74% as of around the time of this post i think, and NOW it is 32%! what the heck? :(

Mikel November 16 2005 12:30 AM EST

Told you it was an error somewhere.

Jon would it be possible to show the NCB on the Battle Log like the NUB is shown?
Where the bonus is shown and a link with Java popup telling you how much longer it lasts?

MrC [DodgingTheEvilForgeFees] November 16 2005 12:31 AM EST

Thank you Jon! :)

Lost 50% of the bonus...
Well, that's got to be a good change then. :)

/me laughs as he pictures GL mourning the death of his 'masterplan'. ;P

Bootsanator November 16 2005 12:32 AM EST

oh, never mind i guess, i didn't read the new posts about the re-re-calibration.
*sheds a tear for his itty-bitty nub

AdminJonathan November 16 2005 12:47 AM EST

just go to your MC page instead of asking me to uglify everything else because you're lazy

I mean, holy crap, it only changes every four months at most. Surely even with a really really bad memory "Jan 3" will sink into your head eventually.

Mikel November 16 2005 1:06 AM EST

I like to see it constantly and specifically because of something like this. Had it been there It would've noticed by quite a few people and they could've stopped fighting until it was fixed, fortunately, you fixed it rather fast. I already have enough problems with other things such as my characters auto-retiring while they still have stuff in rentals. Having to train/untrain to keep my MPR at the correct level so that my rewards are maximized. I can live with those until you find time to fix them, but a bonus is a bonus and I work my tail off fighting with the idea that I'm getting that bonus.
And Glory, it wasn't wasted CB2 on the BA purchased up to now, the price of ba is adjusted according to the bonus you have. Now we have a smaller bonus, so the price is a bit lower. So you didn't over pay for it.

Relic November 16 2005 1:26 AM EST

Jonathan: Any word on the MPR inflation bug? I don't mind training a small amount of exp and unlearning it to bring my MPR back in line, just checking on the status...

Emin3nt November 16 2005 1:35 AM EST

So basically, I've been playing 9 days and most of my NUB is gone... while certain people before me got a NUB bonus of 167% for ~22 times that long? Seems like a vast unbalance to me.

Special J November 16 2005 1:36 AM EST

(NUB until March 06)

most of it gone?
are you insane?

Emin3nt November 16 2005 1:37 AM EST

Oh my calculation was a 6 month NUB bonus not 4.... it's more like ~15 times.

Special J November 16 2005 1:40 AM EST

nub length is fixed at 4 months

the % of the bonus fluctuates constantly

Emin3nt November 16 2005 1:45 AM EST

"the % of the bonus fluctuates constantly"

...Ok. I still find it ironic that the NUB bonus is supposed to help me catch up to people who have been playing a year longer than me when with it diminished I can't even catch up to people who've played 4 months longer.

[The Wretched]Freekie [Lower My Fees] November 16 2005 1:47 AM EST

so is there some way that i could get my forgerfreek unretired since my NUB is gone now?

AdminShade November 16 2005 1:48 AM EST

Mansonfreek: you should ask an admin that in a CM or in a separate thread and pay the $50k fee.

MrC [DodgingTheEvilForgeFees] November 16 2005 1:49 AM EST

Eminent, play a little longer before you make statements like that.

It's a proven fact that with the NUB/NCB you can catch up quite easily.

AdminQBGentlemanLoser [{END}] November 16 2005 2:16 AM EST

:D

No complaints from me on this. Johnny, Looks I might not be winning that bet! ;)

Just for reference my Bonus went from 171% to 124%.

Special J November 16 2005 2:28 AM EST

and that bonus is a true percentage

as in your rewards are 2.73 times more than someone without a 173% nub

XxFaezerxX November 16 2005 9:55 PM EST

just a question--- my initial NUb was 156% yesterday it dropped to around 120%

today when i logged in its at 101%

can anyone tell me what's going on? i'm confused

XxFaezerxX November 16 2005 9:58 PM EST

nvm my last post i didn't read entire page, didn't realize there was a second adjustment sry

Peter at home November 16 2005 10:12 PM EST

Hi, I want to ask, if 129% NCB means that with normal char I would get 100 xp with 129% NCB I get 129 xp or 229 xp?

Thanks.

Derek November 16 2005 10:24 PM EST

229xp, mrwuss explained it about 3 posts above.

Ilovehellokitty November 16 2005 11:14 PM EST

change #1 -> 130% -->71% : BA cost went down to 500ish.
change #2 -> 71% ->28% : BA cost went down to 500ish???? (or same)
what best i should do?

Emin3nt November 16 2005 11:49 PM EST

" Eminent, play a little longer before you make statements like that. "

Common sense has nothing to do with how long I've played. If someone played 4 months with a 167% bonus the whole time and I play 4 months with a diminished bonus it should be no surprise that I will not catch up to that person, provided we both spend the same amount of BA.

Lumpy Koala November 16 2005 11:54 PM EST

Eminent, If someone already finished their NUB 4 months ago before the change. His bonus should be less than or close to your NUB % now. Because over the period of 4 months, the top #1 MPR has risen a lot. NUB % is based on top char. In other words, you are still competitive compared to that person.

Emin3nt November 17 2005 12:28 AM EST

So you're saying my reduced NUB bonus is the same as the people who have finished their NUB bonuses already?

Special J November 17 2005 12:36 AM EST

Emin3nt,

No, we are saying the NUB was overly powered before and recently fixed. So, you can either enjoy the fact that you have the NUB to begin with, which is something CB1 never had. Or, and listen close, leave.

AdminQBGentlemanLoser [{END}] November 17 2005 2:06 AM EST

Just one thought. Would the MPR bug cause any problems figuring out this amendment?

Or is it just a display bug at our end?

AdminQBGentlemanLoser [{END}] November 17 2005 4:02 AM EST

Eminent;

"adjusted for the lifetime of the bonus."

If you're worried about people who had the bonus 6, 7, 8 or more months ago, don't worry, there never reached Ranger anyway, so your bonus is still based on him.

Fight as much as Ranger and you'll get to 95% of his MPR by the end of your bonus time.

Don't, and you won't.

QBJohnnywas November 17 2005 4:54 AM EST

Did I read that right? Someone complaining because 'veteran' NUB players had a bigger bonus than they've got now?

'It's not fair, they had four legs and I've only got three...'


AdminShade November 17 2005 4:55 AM EST

Finally CB2 is a bit more friendly to veterans that really make an effort in staying at the top :)

UltimaSpock [Forge Frog Services] November 17 2005 6:39 AM EST

I'm a beginner so I hope you will not crush me with your remarks, but do you know why all these computations are done with the MPR instead of the PR?

I believed it was the PR the true mirror of your strength in cb.
thanks

AdminShade November 17 2005 6:42 AM EST

while the PR is indeed a more accurate measurement of how strong a person is, the MPR is based on trained experience alone, and not based on other factors like a tattoo, weapons and armor.

Emin3nt November 17 2005 9:09 AM EST

Jeez I remark on how I got hosed out of my bonus and the veterans have to all go and cry, ridiculous.

DrAcO5676 [The Knighthood III] November 17 2005 9:30 AM EST

Emin3nt You might want to stop proving yourself the fool until you understand the entire situation. The Veterans in CB2 have been through alot and they are just remarking on how everything is evening out now. The Balance has actually made it worth it to continue playing. Even with the NUB Being reduced, from what I see you will still have plenty of bonus to catch up to the top 10 easy enough with enough dedication to the game.
$ .02 worth of it and more!
From the DrAc

AdminQBGentlemanLoser [{END}] November 17 2005 10:36 AM EST

Cry? I cry when I stub my toe. When I get to weepy part of a movie or book. When I don't breakfall properly and bust my knee. When my wife finds out how much money I did spend on that night out.

But I've never cried over correcting someones misconception.

"So basically, I've been playing 9 days and most of my NUB is gone... while certain people before me got a NUB bonus of 167% for ~22 times that long? Seems like a vast unbalance to me."

You've failed to understand what "adjusted for the lifetime of the bonus" means.

People with a month left of the bonus have had more of a reduction than those with 3.

The lucky guys are the ones whoes bonuses have already finished, but they never made it to Ranger, so don't worry about it.

QQ

QBJohnnywas November 17 2005 10:38 AM EST

You big crybaby GL ;)

AdminQBGentlemanLoser [{END}] November 17 2005 10:41 AM EST

:D

I like to think I'm secure enough to be able to express my feelings.

I'm going to a free bar tonight, I wholey expect to cry at some time tonight. I'm being put up in a hotel, so no drunken posting I'm afraid.. :(

Emin3nt November 17 2005 4:56 PM EST

Yeah, except you fail to realize people lost their NUB bonus entirely because it should be negative. And I don't acutally think you're in tears, I was just remarking on how everyone's jumping on the diss the new player bandwagon.

QBRanger November 17 2005 7:04 PM EST

Emin3nt,

The people that lost their NUB had far more benefit than Jon intended that is why it is gone. If you would read the posts above, especially Jon's you would see that.

I do not think we are piling on the new players with the bonus, we are only relieved that older characters are now worth playing.

Ilovehellokitty November 17 2005 7:08 PM EST

Translation: Bla Bla Wee Wee Doo Dee Whambulance!

Special J November 17 2005 9:39 PM EST

Kitty, your subtle insults to Ranger are getting quite annoying.

Knock it off, last warning.

Emin3nt November 18 2005 3:47 PM EST

Yeah, but I'm still disappointed that I used to make more money :(. Yeah kitty you better knock that off... you're inciting some pretty radical thinking. What'll they do next, create a Bill of Rights and protect freedom of speech?

Special J November 18 2005 4:13 PM EST

This is carnageblender not the USA, you have no rights here except the ones granted to you. Which can also be revoked.

Ilovehellokitty November 18 2005 6:20 PM EST

Thus, all NUB and NCB have been multiplied by (1.15 / 1.3) = 0.887, adjusted for the lifetime of the bonus. E.g., kitty's new bonus is about 0.71 for its remaining month.

I am sorry i am not that good in Math. I am lost right after the 0.887.
New magic number is 0.98 instead of 1.15. If i plug that in i re-read as :

Thus, all NUB and NCB have been multiplied by (0.98/ 1.3) = 0.75ish and i lost it as how i ended up with 28%. The answer may lie within "the lifetime of the bonus" but i don't know how you calculate it. Anyone care to help me understand the math?

Derek November 18 2005 6:43 PM EST

Your original NUB was 130%, the bonus you would've received under the modified NUB is 130% *(.98/1.3) = 98%.

Since you had the 130% bonus for about three months, your NUB for the remaining month must be an amount that will make your bonus over the four months equal to 98%.
So we need to solve the equation:
130%*.75 + X * .25 = 98% (where X = bonus for remaining month)
i.e. X*.25 = 98-97.5
So X = 2% bonus for the remaining month.

My calculations may be off slightly because your getting more than this but hopefully you get the idea :)

QBRanger November 18 2005 6:46 PM EST

Kitty

My guess:

According to the magic number, for you at the time you started you should have had a 98 percent NUB. You instead had a 130 percent bonus. So 3 months of 32 percent over bonus is then subtracted from your 130 percent leaving a 34 percent bonus left for your last month.

Just my thought on it.

Ilovehellokitty November 18 2005 6:47 PM EST

that's way too off.

Derek November 18 2005 6:56 PM EST

The point is, the NUB got reduced by a factor of 0.75, so your bonus for the remainder of your NUB will be a number that reduces your NUB by a factor of 0.75 over the lifetime of the bonus.

Ilovehellokitty November 18 2005 7:03 PM EST

yeah Ranger got it pretty close. I think that might have been the case.

Derek November 18 2005 9:15 PM EST

Just out of curiosity Jonathan, would the adjustment of the NUB a couple of months ago have affected the calculation? I would assume before the first change ilovehellokitty's NUB would've been higher than it is now.

QBRanger November 19 2005 9:25 AM EST

Jon,

Another question.

I thought in past posts you were saying that the NUB/NCB was to let players get to the top (or lets say 95% of the top total xp) given maximization of their BA (ie 100% usage). Now I see your saying equivalent effort.

As we all know, after 10 or so months it is almost impossible to maximize ones BA usage. I, by 20k battles, have been the best at it, and I am even slowing down.

So if a new player comes along, or an older player with the NCB and maximizes their BA usage for only 4 months, would it not be possible for them to shoot past the top MPR?

I know it is against the rules and one can be banned for it, but how hard would it be for, lets say, a set of roommates (or husband/wife) to both play 1 or possibly 2 accounts and nobody could prove a thing?
This way it would be possible to use almost 100% of available BA.

AdminQBGentlemanLoser [{END}] November 19 2005 1:16 PM EST

But Ranger, if anyone works harder than someone else, shouldn't they pass you?

If a new player uses 100% of their BA in bonus time, shouldn't they pass you if you've only used 80% over your whole career?

Synco November 19 2005 1:28 PM EST

I recall Jon saying "if I person works even 1% harder than Ranger, he deserves to pass him."

But in an earlier post, Jon said that a person should be able to get to the top with equal effort.

AdminNightStrike November 23 2005 9:09 AM EST

Those are not mutually exclusive statements. They are quite reasonably chained together.
This thread is closed to new posts. However, you are welcome to reference it from a new thread; link this with the html <a href="/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001bal">NUB/NCB recalibration</a>