What are the odds I would miss this much? (in General)

Vaynard [Fees Dirt Cheap] February 9 2006 4:55 PM EST

I just fought BarzooMonkey's character Dogs of War. Pretty nice team, and it's been heavily upped since I looked at it last. But when I fought those dogs, I got a stalemate.When I looked at the battle log, I was shocked.

My challenge: what are the odds this would happen? Here are the facts:
*I missed Sensei Boopadoo 21 out of 22 times. And never had a double or triple hit.
*He has Elven Boots, so no evasion that way.
*He does have UC trained, and a Combat GI, HG, and other gear that doesn't give him penalties to UC.
*His total DX was 207,980 during the fight. My DX for the fight was 770,000.
*My AXBow missed Sensei the one time it fired at him, and it is +70. My BoNE missed him the remaining 20 of 21 times, and it is +67.

Even though yes, UC does give evasion and perhaps defensive or imaginary DX or whatever it is called, is this right? He effectively neutralized a 67% chance to hit and a 562,020 DX advantage. Any thoughts? I will be CM'ing Barzoomonkey to figure out what kind of insane UC he has going.

YOU February 9 2006 5:00 PM EST

Melee Hits / Blows / Avg Damage 0 / 8 / 0 I missed 100%
he has 350k UC trained (about 1.2mil UC total i think) which = 300k Evasion.

Maelstrom February 9 2006 5:12 PM EST

That's what you get for trying to mess with my clanmate! :p

Don't underestimate the Fierce Invalids!

QBsutekh137 February 9 2006 5:14 PM EST

Not sure how even a large evasion (via DB, UC, or Evasion skill) could overcome that huge Dexterity disparity...

That was one bad fight...what would you say your average melee hit rate is against him? This could be a good chance to find out how evasion eats into dexterity (unless everyone already has that figured out and I just haven't been paying attention...)

QBJohnnywas February 9 2006 5:16 PM EST

Lol Mael - I was just about to say the same thing.

In fights against you I rarely see you strike a triple. Doubles certainly and the few times I do see triplestrikes it's in melee, not in ranged. Single mage with a total dex of 19. No evasion....

QBJohnnywas February 9 2006 5:17 PM EST

Ok. I'm going to shut up now. The last four battles have had nothing but triple strikes.....

Maybe Stalker was tired.... ;)

QBJohnnywas February 9 2006 5:19 PM EST

I did just see something weird though - my battle cry sounded twice. It looked like your VA brought you back to life..... strange........

QBBarzooMonkey February 9 2006 5:24 PM EST

I replied to Vaynard's CM, but here is what I said in case anyone else is interested in the stats:

UC trained is 350,005. With gear, it is now 1,490,430, and (93), which is x93(+93) if it were a weapon. One of my main motivations right now is exploring the "upper levels" of UC :)

After many, many months and millions of XP, the Sensei finally kicks a little booty :)

AdminQBGentlemanLoser [{END}] February 9 2006 5:52 PM EST

Wow! Great UC BM! :D

Guessing that the UC evasion kicks in before UC upping items, that would give you a little over 100K Evasion, so around 40-45. This would be around 200 K in ranged.

If you have a Gi, that would give an additional 40-45 Evasion, but it might just stack like enchantments, so your Evasion in melee could also be around 200K (I hope that makes sense!)

The defensive Dex would be around 100K (I'm not sure if the Gi provides defensive dex along with it's evasion... I'd have to check the changelog).

AdminQBGentlemanLoser [{END}] February 9 2006 5:55 PM EST

As DBs don't grant defensive Dexterity, I doubt the Gi does... :?

sssimmo February 9 2006 6:06 PM EST

Also remember with a BoNE +69, your effective enchantment is actually +44. Because of the -25 handicap on all 2 handed weapons.

AdminQBGentlemanLoser [{END}] February 9 2006 6:11 PM EST

I thought the 2H penalty was for the dex part of hitting, and played no part on the +. It's not 25% from 50% (for equal dex), I suggested that as there is a 50% gap between the two, they had been moved to 25%/75% and Jon said that was wrong. :)

QBOddBird February 9 2006 6:15 PM EST

WOW. If I had known I could do that, I'd have stuck with my (99) UC character. Perhaps I'll remake him as a single UC tank. Impressive stuff, BarzooM.

Vaynard [Fees Dirt Cheap] February 9 2006 7:25 PM EST

Here's some new info. I fought him several more times.

Hits/Total attacks + if I hit him
15/29 +1Axbow hit on Sensei
16/22 +1Axbow hit on sensei
17/23 +1Axbow hit on sensei
16/22+1Axbow hit on sensei

I guess that fight was on the low end after all. Still, Sensei is a power-house. And note that although I say my first fight I was 15/29, that also includes hits against all 4 of his minions- so I in fact missed much more than that against Sensei.

Thanks for the numbers BarzooMonkey, I'm going to have to think about this a little more now too about how it works. UC seems to be very powerful indeed. And again, nice strategy.

sssimmo February 9 2006 7:39 PM EST

From Changelog:

+ 1H melee weapons now have a 50% higher base chance-to-hit than 2H weapons
+ (1H base to-hit went up; 2H base to-hit went down)
+ this affects how easy it is to get double hits from DX as well

I took from this that a base 2-handed weapon of 92x1 +0 was effectively -25. So to be a "real" +100 the enchantment would have to be +125.

And a 1-handed weapon of 80x1 +0 was effectively +25 and therefore a real +100 the enchantment would only have to be +75.

Tell me if I am wrong cos I may have to sell all my ELS'.


maulaxe February 9 2006 10:28 PM EST


sell it to me for cheap?

sssimmo February 9 2006 10:46 PM EST


AdminQBGentlemanLoser [{END}] February 10 2006 6:24 AM EST

That might explain why quad hits aren't seen at +101 for things like MHs. :)

QBRanger February 10 2006 8:29 AM EST

I have 900k dex vs his UC minion and a +167 MH with a TOA that gives me about 80 PTH.

I only hit him 2 times in melee, so his UC is stopping 2 of my usual 4 hits.

QBsutekh137 February 10 2006 10:48 AM EST

Ranger, I am sure you would rather not waste battles, and getting enough hits on the specific minion might take a while, but can you give us an average over a larger number of battles? I would be very curious to see your number of misses, because it would seem like there should be very, very few for you.

QBBarzooMonkey February 10 2006 10:52 AM EST

Okay, I'm starting to feel a little like a laboratory guinea pig now :P

Just kidding ;)

QBRanger February 10 2006 11:09 AM EST

I have fought Barzoo's character numerous times over the past few days testing things out myself.

I only get 2 hits on his character when vs someone without DB's, I almost always get 4.

BTW my MH is not +167 but +145.

QBsutekh137 February 10 2006 11:21 AM EST

So, let me see if I have this right... Even though the pth of your weapon and ToA far surpass BM's evasion (at least I assume it does...surely that level of UC does not have an evasion north of 150?), and your dexterity gap is astoundingly huge, you still miss his UC minion 50% of the time?

Does anyone else think that is strange? Am I missing something?

AdminQBGentlemanLoser [{END}] February 10 2006 11:26 AM EST

Nope, at most, the UC + Gi is giving somewhere around 90 Evaison, maybe as little as 50 odd (depending onhow the Gi stacks with the Skill). I could see ranger maybe losing one potential attack, but not two...


Vaynard [Fees Dirt Cheap] February 10 2006 11:55 AM EST

I am sorry to keep doing this to you Barzoomonkey, but you have definitely piqued my interest. Here is my newest data, and this time I am showing only my hits / total attacks versus the Sensei alone.

4/13 (with an axbow hit as well)

Although this is a rather small test group, the average is I hit him is 24.76%, or approximately one quarter of the time. Four is the magic number that it takes to finish the Sensei as well. And note that after 20 melee attacks the fight ends in a Stalemate, so that number could theoretically go higher.

Also, his haste is 114,238. So with his DX of 209,262, he has a total of 323,500 DX. And my +70 axbow missed him all but the one fight I noted, so that isn't a factor. And his axbow never touches me. But I still have a DX advantage of 446,500.

On the 2-handed weapon hit chance, I am for the most part ignoring that. None of us knows exactly how it works, and earlier guesses made when it was lowered were rebuffed by Jon. Sssimmo, I think GL is right about the chance to hit he changed having to do with DX part.

With UC granting 1/3 its level in evasion, I assume this means his final UC of 1,490,430 gives him 496,810 evasion. Adding that as Defensive DX to his regular DX means he has a total defensive dx of 820,310, giving him a DX advantage of 50,310 over Stalker. And although it wasn't graphed out, I'm assuming that would have an effect of 80- which is 13 over my PTH.

In conclusion, if my assumptions aren't way off (which they very well could be), I hit 25% of the time, and that is actually more than I would guess because by my guesswork and math I need at least 50k more DX and 13 more PTH to even have an even 50% chance to hit him (ignoring 2-Handed weapon hit decrease change). How do my numbers sound to you guys?

Thanks for reading too.

AdminShade February 10 2006 11:58 AM EST


*His total DX was 207,980 during the fight. My DX for the fight was 770,000.

did you also calculate his Haste?

AdminShade February 10 2006 12:05 PM EST

how much is his UC?
how much evasion does that give him?
how much defensive DX does that give him, in both ranged and melee?

AdminShade February 10 2006 12:10 PM EST

nevermind, i didn't read a few things:

Did you mean 500k level Evasion or exp?
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